West Virginia University researchers are investigating the economic implications of environmental cleanup costs associated with agricultural runoff, which contributes to the formation of "dead zones" in coastal systems. Led by Professor Levan Elbakidze from WVU's Davis College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, the team includes doctoral candidate Taiwo Akinyemi and postdoctoral fellow Yeulu Xu. They are collaborating with colleagues from Texas Soil and Water Research Laboratory and Iowa State University.
The study focuses on coastal hypoxic zones where algae blooms result from nitrogen in agricultural fertilizers. The decomposition process consumes oxygen, creating uninhabitable conditions for marine life. "The Gulf of Mexico algal bloom is a really big problem," Elbakidze stated, highlighting the impact of excess nutrients leading to periodic algal blooms.
Funded by the National Science Foundation, the researchers have developed an economic model assessing nitrogen fertilizer's role in corn, wheat, sorghum, and soybean markets. This model helps estimate nitrogen reaching bodies like the Gulf of Mexico—renamed Gulf of America by President Donald Trump through an executive order—Lake Erie, and Chesapeake Bay.
Despite efforts by the Environmental Protection Agency to reduce the Gulf dead zone size by 2035, progress has been limited. EPA studies suggest a 45% reduction in nitrogen runoff is necessary to achieve this goal. Elbakidze noted that reducing upstream nutrient levels would benefit local watersheds like the Mississippi River Basin.
"The benefits of reducing nitrogen pollution are likely to be really large upstream and downstream," he explained. The research also considers potential market impacts if fertilizer use is regulated or taxed.
A concern highlighted is pollution leakage; reduced nitrogen runoff in one area may lead to increased production elsewhere due to market shifts. "If we significantly limit corn production there, then prices for corn may go up," Elbakidze said.
Findings indicate a 45% decrease in Gulf runoff could increase Lake Erie and Chesapeake Bay runoff by 4%-5%. Addressing all coastal areas' runoff requires considering co-management costs.
Elbakidze estimates achieving a 45% reduction could cost $7 billion annually but suggests benefits might outweigh these costs due to improved ecosystems upstream. Future research funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture will expand crop inclusion in models for more accurate predictions across commodity markets.
"Right now, if you reduce nitrogen runoff, we can see what will happen to soybean, wheat, corn and sorghum prices," Elbakidze said. He plans to include phosphorus as it poses a greater issue for Lake Erie than nitrogen does.
He emphasized integrated models accounting for human behavior and natural system dynamics are crucial for informed policy development regarding nutrient runoff management: "More research is needed to quantify benefits and costs."
Alerts Sign-up